The NAND flash supply crunch shows no signs of easing in 2026, according to Kioxia, one of the world’s leading memory manufacturers. The company has revealed that its entire production volume for the year is already sold out, a development that underscores the tight grip AI-driven demand has on the market.
Unlike previous shortages tied to consumer electronics cycles, this bottleneck stems from sustained investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Kioxia’s managing director for memory operations notes that while the company maintains a commitment to existing clients through a ‘gentleman’s agreement,’ even long-standing partners are facing year-on-year price increases of up to 30%. This dynamic suggests that supply constraints will extend well beyond 2026, with potential ripple effects lasting into 2027 and possibly beyond.
Despite recent advancements in QLC (Quad-Level Cell) flash technology—such as SK Hynix’s 321-layer QLC chips and Micron’s PCIe 5.0 QLC drive—the Kioxia executive expresses skepticism about its long-term performance and endurance. Instead, the company advocates for eighth-generation NAND flash, arguing that it offers superior reliability without the trade-offs associated with higher-density storage solutions.
Kioxia is not entirely powerless in the face of these challenges. The company has announced plans to expand production capacity through new facilities, including a second chip fabrication plant at its Kitakami site. However, industry analysts caution that such efforts are unlikely to significantly alleviate shortages in the near term, given the aggressive ramp-up already underway by competitors like SK Hynix.
For consumers and businesses alike, the implications are clear: memory prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, with no immediate relief on the horizon. While Kioxia continues to develop new products for 2026, the broader market appears locked in a prolonged period of scarcity.
